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Now more than ever Mr Tsvangirai must hold firm - freedom is easiest lost a piece at a time. Across the country there are still reports of sporadic politically-motivated violence - nowhere near the levels of the election, but significant enough to be worrying. Inflation is currently running and the nonsensical figure of 166bn percent. Two million people currently need food aid, a figure which could potentially reach 5m before the year is out.
Even if an ideal political situation occurred tomorrow, in which Mr Mugabe wandered off into the Savannah and his supporters experienced a Damascene conversion to Tsvangerism, the world would likely not be able to contribute financial aid for some time. A sudden influx of foreign cash would only feed the uber-inflation. Major structural economic reforms would need to be put in place in order to allow it to function, followed by foreign aid.
There is some promising news; the MDC has control of the parliament, and the speaker Lovemore Moyo is a charismatic and spirited man who is leading the constitutional fight against Mr Mugabe.
British diplomats monitoring the situation are keen to avoid being seen as Mr Tsvangirai's puppet-master, for both his sake and theirs. And whatever reservations they may have with the Mbeki mediation process, it is 'the only show in town' and those involved must work within its constraints. There is certainly not enough support in SADC or the wider African community for replacing Mr Mbeki with someone else.
Nevertheless Mr Mbeki's hastened exit from power in South Africa risks making him a lame duck negotiator. Mr Mugabe is famed for his hierarchical view of the world, and how much respect he will accord a state- and status-less Mr Mbeki remains to be seen.
Progress has come so slowly, and in such small measure, that Mr Tsvangirai will be loathe to give it up over yet another broken promise. But the sad fact is that there is no honest bargaining with a madman, and giving in this time risks making a bad deal much worse.
See also: Dealing with the devil
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15 October, 2008 A bad deal worse
Reports from Zimbabwe indicate that Robert Mugabe has got bored of keeping his promises and begun handing out high-profile cabinet posts to Zanu-PF allies. It is a bad omen for the lasting success of any deal.
In previous talks Morgan Tsvangirai had insisted on MDC appointments to the Home Office and Finance Ministry. Without these two positions Mr Tsvangirai and the MDC would be effectively co-opted in a Mugabe government in which they had no significant power, weakening both their chances of effecting change and of being ready for it.
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