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13 August 08 Georgia on my mind
The news of a Russian ceasefire and a peace agreement, however shaky, for troubled Georgia is thoroughly good news. The civilians of South Ossetia and the surrounding areas of Georgia have suffered immeasurably in the last week, and amongst the verbal recriminations and posturing which will follow this short and nasty war their plight must not be forgotten.
In the face of overwhelming international condemnation the Russians seem convinced they are justified in their actions which, according to their version of events, are simply protecting Russian citizens in South Ossetia. Neither side is blameless in this messy muddle, but there is no doubt that the Russians have shown flagrant disregard for their responsibilities as regional superpower.
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Precedent does of course exist throughout recent history for nations conducting military operations to safeguard, and usually extract, their citizens from conflict zones. In this case, however, the Russians have invaded, occupied and attempted to cripple a sovereign nation state. The Georgian military’s actions against the South Ossetian separatist militia may have been a miscalculation, but there is no excuse for Russia abusing its obvious military superiority by attempting to crush its neighbour.
The action has shown up starkly the inability or unwillingness of Georgia’s NATO allies to offer it any more than rhetorical support. The sight of President Bush admonishing Russia for invading a sovereign state must rank among the most facile of international responses.
The fact is, though, that had Georgian accession to NATO membership been completed at the breakneck pace some had wanted, the colour of this conflict would have been drastically different. For only the second time in its history the alliance would have faced an attack on one of its members, obliging all others to come to its aid and presenting the most real, and largely unforeseen, show-down between the old cold war antagonists for a generation.
Russia has acted brashly and irresponsibly, both grossly destabilising the region and undermining years of international diplomatic integration, but Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin would appear not to care. Russia holds all the cards; with a resurgent economy, a chastened America and an almost complete monopoly on energy supplies to large parts of Europe.
The West is faced with an apparently impossible choice; cave in to a bullying and bellicose old enemy or face off and risk further escalating a perilously catalytic situation.
See also: Ukraine if you want to
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